DIALOGUE BRIEF
July 2026
Virtual
Session Summary
The Hollings Center’s latest session in its Securing Strategic Waters Across the MENA Region series examined how the war in Ukraine has transformed Black Sea maritime security. Participants discussed Ukraine’s success in restricting Russian naval freedom of action through sea-denial capabilities, including uncrewed systems, long-range strikes, and distributed intelligence and targeting networks. At the same time, Russia retains significant capacity to strike Ukrainian ports, infrastructure, and commercial vessels, leaving the Black Sea a highly contested maritime environment.
The discussion emphasized that civilian navigation is now inseparable from the broader security picture. Attacks on ports and vessels, insurance costs, electronic interference, and uncertainty can disrupt commerce even when shipping routes remain physically open. Participants also identified potential overlapping interests in protecting agricultural exports and civilian navigation, creating possibilities for limited maritime de-risking even in the absence of a broader political settlement.
Participants further stressed that Black Sea maritime security can no longer be considered in isolation. Conflict dynamics increasingly overlap across the Black Sea, Mediterranean, Red Sea, Persian Gulf, and Caspian through military cooperation, energy flows, sanctions evasion, weapons transfers, commercial rerouting, and electronic warfare. These connections are making traditionally separate regional security challenges increasingly interdependent.
Rather than calling for an ambitious new regional security architecture, participants emphasized practical steps to strengthen littoral deterrence, protect commercial navigation and infrastructure, improve maritime awareness, counter sanctions evasion and hybrid threats, and expand cooperation among Black Sea states. Türkiye and the Montreux Convention will remain central, but a realistic postwar approach may depend more on managed restraint, practical cooperation, and credible coastal defense than on large permanent naval deployments.
Key Takeaways of the Black Sea Maritime Security Session
Ukraine’s use of asymmetric sea-denial capabilities has substantially changed the Black Sea military balance without establishing traditional sea control.
Maritime disruption increasingly depends on uncertainty, insurance risk, infrastructure vulnerability, and electronic interference as much as conventional naval power.
The Black Sea is increasingly connected to other conflicts and security pressures in the Mediterranean, Red Sea, Persian Gulf, and Caspian.
Effective regional deterrence may rely more on air and coastal defense, surveillance, mine countermeasures, coast guards, and information sharing than on larger fleets.
Participants favored practical cooperation and managed restraint over an ambitious new Black Sea security architecture.
Türkiye remains indispensable to any future regional arrangement because of its control of the Straits, NATO role, regional relationships, and stewardship of the Montreux Convention.
